Go to page

Bibliographic Metadata

Restriction-Information
 The document is publicly available on the WWW
Links
Abstract

We analyze the impact of different designs of COVID-19 related lockdown policies on

economic loss and mortality using a micro-level simulation model, which combines a multisectoral

closed economy with an epidemic transmission model. In particular, the model

captures explicitly the (stochastic) effect of interactions between heterogeneous agents during

different economic activities on virus transmissions. The empirical validity of the model is

established using data on economic and pandemic dynamics in Germany in the first six

months after the COVID-19 outbreak. We show that a policy inducing switches between a

strict lockdown and a full opening-up of economic activity is strictly dominated by alternative

policies, which implement either a much more cautious opening at the end of the lockdown

or a more or less continuous light lockdown with only minor restrictions of economic activity.

Furthermore, also the ex-ante variance of the economic loss suffered during the pandemic

is substantially lower under these policies. Keeping the other policy parameters fixed, a

variation of the consumption restrictions during the lockdown induces a trade-off between

GDP loss and mortality. Finally, we study the robustness of these findings with respect to

the occurrence of a more infectious virus mutation.